Articles

It should be common knowledge that when an established player has a sizable touchdown spike in a season, that player is likely due for touchdown regression the following year.

A multitude of factors can lead to an unusual touchdown outcome. Roster churn, coaching changes, offensive-line instability, role changes, and plain old variance can all tilt a season. The likelihood that the player repeats the same touchdown spike is usually low.

Let’s look at a few examples of this phenomenon in recent history, confirm whether the narrative holds true, and identify where action may be needed before it is too late.

Saquon Barkley, PHI/RB

Barkley is a 29-year-old running back who had a historic 2024 season, finishing as the RB2 overall in PPR scoring. His touchdowns spiked to 15, matching his rookie-season output.

The number to keep in mind is his career average outside of those two spike seasons. In every other season, Barkley averaged 8.2 touchdowns.

In 2025, Barkley regressed toward his mean by producing 9 touchdowns. Philadelphia attempted to run back the same type of offense that helped carry them to a championship the year prior, but they simply could not replicate it. There were issues on the offensive line and struggles in the passing game, neither of which Barkley could fully control.

It is possible Barkley has another touchdown spike in his future. The actionable advice, however, is to sell a player after or during a spike season. The likelihood of repeating that touchdown output is slim, and the best value you may ever get for that player is usually during or immediately after that season.

If you elect to hold because you expect the repeat, you may be left holding the bag, and the bag may be lighter than it could have been.

Trey McBride, ARI/TE

McBride is a 26-year-old tight end and a stud. Depending on who you ask, he is either the best tight end in the league or right there in the conversation.

He is also the best player on his team, which includes first-round talents like Marvin Harrison and Jeremiyah Love. Arizona is in rebuild mode. Their defense is struggling, the offensive line is subpar, and the quarterback situation remains unsettled.

McBride scored 11 touchdowns last season, which catapulted his value to the moon. His prior touchdown high had been 3 in his second season.

His short-term situation does not lead to an outlook that should be viewed as clean. Even if Arizona lands an early draft pick in 2027, their recent quarterback history does not make that an automatic fix.

There is a substantial chance McBride reached his value peak last season. Not because of his talent, but because of the situation around him. If you are a contender, you can stop reading. If you are not contending and you plan to hold McBride through a rebuild, I would strongly advise against it.

McBride will be great. Do not get me wrong. But 2025 great? I am not so sure.

Christian McCaffrey, SF/RB

McCaffrey is a 30-year-old running back with multiple examples of touchdown regression across his career.

Christian has been a fantasy football stud for a long time, but within that haystack of elite production are a few needles that represent touchdown spike seasons. There have been multiple times when dynasty managers should have sold before regression arrived.

In 2019, during McCaffrey’s third season, he scored 19 total touchdowns. In 2020, he missed 13 games due to injury. In 2021, he missed 9 games. Across those two seasons, McCaffrey managed only 8 total touchdowns.

In 2023, McCaffrey scored 21 total touchdowns. In 2024, he missed 13 games due to injury and did not score a touchdown.

During McCaffrey’s career, heavy usage has often created touchdown spikes, but that same heavy usage has also been predictive of injury trouble in future seasons.

There were two spike-adjacent moments where selling would not have been the best move. In 2018, he scored 13 touchdowns and then scored 19 the following year. In 2022, he scored 13 touchdowns and then scored 21 the next season.

Still, across the span of McCaffrey’s career, the fantasy manager would have benefited from selling after the spike far more often than holding through the regression window.